¿PUEDEN LAS INTERFACES DE USOS DEL SUELO EXPLICAR LA OCURRENCIA DE INCENDIOS FORESTALES A ESCALA PROVINCIAL?

Jesús Garrido Redondo, Lara Vilar, Pilar Echevarría, Javier Martínez-Vega, M. Pilar Martín

Resumen


Los usos del suelo y su relación con factores socio-económicos son un aspecto clave en la gestión de incendios forestales. Este estudio analiza la ocurrencia de incendios forestales en el período 2005-2010 utilizando como variables explicativas las zonas de contacto entre usos del suelo (interfaces agrícola-forestal (IAF), urbano-forestal (IUF) y pasto-forestal (IPF)) por su relación con la ocurrencia de incendios en España, calculadas a partir de mapas de usos del suelo de Climate Change Initiative-Land Cover. Se utilizó Maxent para generar dos modelos predictivos (general y específico) en Zamora y Madrid. En el modelo general, la IAF contribuyó más en Zamora y la IUF en Madrid. El modelo específico mejoró los ajustes generales en ambas provincias, los porcentajes de acierto en Zamora y la discriminación espacial del riesgo, optimizando las potenciales actuaciones dirigidas a la prevención.

Palabras clave


MaxEnt; incendio forestal; interfaz; usos del suelo; causalidad; riesgo

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Referencias


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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.21138/GF.611

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